In light of the recent election results, I would like to analyze what would happen if changes to the nuclear nonproliferation policies do not occur. Prior to the election Mansour Nouri, a writer, said “It doesn’t matter for us who wins the U.S. elections next week. Who leads America is unimportant, its policies never change.” In my last post, I said that Iran had agreed to do one-on-one negotiations with the US about their nuclear weapons program. However on November 2, 2012, Iran discarded any hopes of compromise between the two nations by rejecting any possibilities of negotiations between the nations in the near future. If this mentality persists, the US and Iranian diplomacy will reach a stalemate at best. However the possibility of a far worse outcome remains, movement towards a nuclear war. As of now, America’s nonproliferation policies consists of the US (with the help of Israel, the EU, and the UN) implementing and strengthening economic sanctions against Iran, while Iran continues to ignore global regulations. In the past, Iran responded to such acts by warning to increase the price of oil to $250 a barrel and passing legislation to obstruct the transportation of oil to nations that ended trading with Iran due to the EU’s embargo. according to the Guardian, Iran has used the most recent sanctions to gain public support of its nuclear program.
Sanctions also play into Khamenei’s efforts to consolidate his power and justify internal suppression. Hence, Iran may actually view sanctions not as a cost, but as a benefit. Iran can – and does – point to sanctions as the suffering it bears in its role as the standard bearer of resistance in the Islamic world against what it regards as US imperialism.
I believe these actions act a rule rather than an exception. If the US continues with its current policies, the US/Iranian relationship will become more polarized due to the lack of communication between the nations.
Nonproliferation in Real Life? 